From Prof. Eliot Jacobson:
Wow! Wow! Wow!
North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are going vertical again. And yes, I needed to extend the y-axis.
Yesterday’s temperature of 24.49°C (76.08°F) was 4.2σ above the 1991-2020 mean. The previous high for July 17 was 23.71°C (74.68°F) in 2020.
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1681321023306874880
We are so fucked
Yep, but for a shining moment in time, humanity created a lot of value for shareholders!
Those are the only important people in the world.
Honestly how long do we have until we experience massive fishing and crop failures everywhere?
Enjoy your days before. The working turn of phrase has consistently been, “Faster than expected.”
We already are experiencing that. Crab fishing season was cancelled in 2022 due to a sudden “where are our missing billions of crab?” Other fishing areas are likewise being affected.
Massive crop failures in China, Russia, Middle East, Africa, south and Central America have been going on for several years. Potable water is disappearing in many regions, forcing massive water migration.
For those looking for a reference like I was:
https://www.themanual.com/food-and-drink/alaska-snow-crab-season-canceled/
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On a planetary scale, I don’t think we’re going to have trouble feeding ourselves, it’s just that a) meat is going to become thoroughly unaffordable and b) an awful lot of crop production is going to shift towards the poles, creating many a geopolitical clusterfuck along the way.
Disaster movies are too obvious, and too tidy; it’s going to be a century of the average human’s life getting just a bit more hellish every year. Acutely hellish for some, barely hellish at all for others, but basically, we’re going to slowly roll back most of the improvements in human welfare over the past few centuries until we’ve got starving serfs all over the place and plagues and famines and natural disasters absolutely flattening entire countries for years at a time.
Very fucking soon.
You ever watch disaster movies? They’re only 2-2.5hrs average.
Well, imagine this is a movie. The 100+ years of data we ignored was that “secret file” that was just discovered. The new high temps are the geeky science guy yelling “oh shit!”
Remember what happens right after that? Very, very quick collapse. Food disaster, heat disaster, weather events and oxygen decrease in our atmosphere.
We’ll either starve, boil, suffocate or kill each other trying to survive.
I think it’s within a couple years. Not decades that is typically reported.
In no way, shape, or form is this good!
Thank a conservative. There will be no solution to climate change while conservatives have any power at all. The time for aggressive action to end conservatism is now.
2x click on 2021, compare to 1990
Why aren’t you making your point in plain English instead of this roundabout way?
If you’re implying that we should look at China’s emissions – China’s cumulative and per capita emissions are lower than the US. China is basically on par with the EU in terms of per capita emissions, so if anyone has some catching up to do it’s the US with 2x (twice!) as much emissions per capita.
If that’s not your point, then that’s my bad – I see way too many people try to shift blame onto China in these conversations.
Also consider that the majority of the world has offloaded the majority of their manufacturing to China in that same timeframe, so it’s not even a fair comparison to start with.
Oh good, I was due for my daily dose of terror.
this is a nightmare
Is this going to effect hurricane season in the way I think it will?
Hurricanes are quite fickle, they need specific conditions, and due to El Niño they are less likely to occur.
Cool thanks for the answer
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It takes about ~30 years to see the effects of emissions on the climate. That means the climate crisis we’re experiencing right now is only the emissions up to ~1993. Looking at CO2 emissions alone, in 1993 the global total was 22.8 billion tonnes. The latest Data available is from 2021, which shows the global CO2 emissions at 37.1 billion tonnes. That’s in increase of 14.3 billion tonnes of annual CO2 emissions in the amount of time it takes us to feel the effects, that’s a 61% increase in Annual emissions, Not Total emissions. If we stopped all CO2 emissions today, it would continue to get considerably worse for at least the next quarter-century. We are truly
Fuckedon the bleeding edge of that climate “tipping point” and major changes are about to start happening very rapidly.source for CO2 emissions numbers: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions
It takes about ~30 years to see the effects of emissions on the climate
This is a long debunked myth.
Here is an article that goes into some detail.
So there is some hope, if we can stop emoting CO2 ASAP. If one finds that a realistic path to belive in on the other hand is a matter of opinion.
what about carbon capture?
Imagine a bull in a china shop destroying everything, now there is two options :
- 1- you take the bull out of the shop
- 2- you decide that it would be to inconvenient to take the bull out but you are sure that in a few decades we will invent a technology that can repair the China faster than the bull is destroying it.
Carbon capture is the option 2, we continue to break the carbon molecules for energy pretending that we can recapture later. It’s not gonna happen, we need to stop emitting NOW and maybe we can think about carbon capture.
Apparently the scale that’s required makes it completely impractical, especially given the timelines that are also required.
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Please keep Elninio in mind.
Climate change certainly plays a big part, but currently Elninio is likely the most impacting thing
I can’t awnser @Skyler
Yes, Climate change, as said, plays a very significant role, but Elninio currently makes it a lot worse, the last Elninios where very weak, this one now relatively strong
This is also related to the change in fuels for ships. They banned something that emits aerosols which has reduced the masking effect. And this started prior to El Niño starting. It’s likely a combination of the above and some other tipping point shenanigans
There were multiple El Nino events during the period of 1982-2022 and yet none of them come close to 2023.
Line go up!
