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Cake day: 2026年3月22日

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  • Honda and Toyota both slow played full electrification, emphasizing non-plug-in vehicles even as plug in models started moving real volumes.

    But Toyota was at least putting a real push in increasing their hybrid lineup, and lining up increasing amounts of electric drivetrains (batteries, motors, regenerative braking chargers, etc.) in their supply chain.

    In 2025, Honda sold 1.4 million vehicles in North America, 430,000 of which were electrified vehicles (50,000 of those being the GM-manufactured Prologue and ZDX), mostly non-plug-in hybrids. Honda has refused to bring a plug-in hybrid to market. Looking at the actual manufacturing, Honda has only partially electrified something like 25% of their vehicles.

    Meanwhile, Toyota moved 2.5 million vehicles, 47% of which were electrified. About 50,000 of them were plug-in hybrids and 22,000 were full electric. That’s not a lot, but at least they developed their own EVs, have a supply chain for literally millions of (small) batteries and regenerative chargers and electric motors in finished cars.

    When it comes time to really put out EVs, Toyota is in a much better position to survive the transition than Honda is.



  • I wonder how much energy is in a liter of sunshine.

    Photovoltaic panels capture energy from the photons that hit it, at a finite speed of light.

    At Earth’s distance from the sun, solar radiation is about 1450 W/m^2 . Each watt is 1 joule/second. And a liter, which is 1000 cubic centimeters, would basically represent a volume that is the 0.1cm of space above a 1 square meter panel (100 cm x 100 cm x 0.1 cm = 1000 cubic centimeters).

    So how much energy hits a 1 square meter panel in the time it takes for light to travel 0.1 cm? Light travels at 3.0 x 10^8 m/s, or 3.0 x 10^10 cm/s, so we’re talking about the light that hits a panel over the course of about 3.3 x 10^-12 s. At 1450 joules per second, times 3.3 x 10^-12 s, we get 4.83 x 10^-9 joules.

    4.8 nanojoules in a liter of sunshine. That’s way less than a liter of gasoline/petrol!

    Then again, using a solar panel you’re able to capture a column of light 3.0 x 10^8 meters tall using that 1 square meter panel. So you’re catching 3.0 x 10^11 liters per second worth of sunlight, which makes the relative low energy per liter still add up to a lot.





  • they could have bought a <$25k used EV last year and saved $4k with the EV tax rebate.

    The people who were in the market for a car last year are by and large not the same people who are in the market today.

    Plus let’s not forget, the actual EVs on the used market 12 months ago were different than today’s. Someone looking to buy a 3-year-old car today has to look for something originally sold in 2023, whereas 12 months ago they were looking at 2022 vehicles, with fewer models available and significantly fewer vehicles actually manufactured and sold.



  • There really was a huge increase in the number of EV models available between model years 2018 and 2023.

    So now, when you’re looking to buy a 3-year-old car, you have so many more EV options to choose from even compared to just 2 years ago.

    You can choose different form factors (small cars, sedans, wagon/crossover/small SUVs, medium SUVs, literal pickup trucks), and basically any price tier from economy to ultra luxury high end.

    Not every ecological niche was filled in the past 5 years, and some still need a bit more competition, but even with some pullback over the last year there are still plenty of new EVs hitting new categories (e.g., true three-row SUVs and minivans) that will feed into tomorrow’s used market.

    And not every model will survive. The future of all-electric full size pickups looks pretty grim. Some entire companies might not survive the EV transition (looking at you, Honda). But overall, the used market will fill out with what was hitting the new market 5-10 years ago, and we’ll start to see a lot of consumer preferences start showing what the future of cars will look like.



  • The spec say 1.8x3-3.5m

    Are you talking about the entire width and length of the vehicle? The roof is smaller than the total footprint. Especially because the width of the vehicle includes the mirrors sticking out.

    10% seems rather low.

    No, it’s pretty high for the use case you describe. Utility scale solar with panels pointed toward the sun tends to achieve about 20-25%, with some American desert installations at 30%.

    Home balcony solar tends to get 10% in places like Germany, with the higher latitude and higher likelihood of overcast skies.

    Putting it on a vehicle roof would be lower than that.

    So 2 kwh per day is optimistic.

    i don’t really need more than 30km a week.

    So why buy a vehicle at all? Seems like the resources that go into an underutilized vehicle would be better used for things like paying fares on taxis.

    You’re better off just charging with 100% utility solar/wind from the grid and paying money for it, rather than trying to combine a mediocre solar array in a costly way that kills your vehicle efficiency.




  • Looking at that roof, it looks like it’s about 3m x 1.5m, for 4.5 m^2. Typical solar panel gets about 200W/m^2 at max sunlight.

    So that’s a peak generation of 900W. With a 24 hour day and a capacity factor of 10%, that’s about 2.16 kWh of energy per day. For a van like that, with the weight and aerodynamics of a bulky solar system on the roof and the systems for storing that energy in another battery and cleanly providing that power in a way that the car charging system can accept? I’d be skeptical that’s good for more than 8km per day, on a sunny day.