Something you’ve probably heard by now is that the Republican Party’s decision to decimate reproductive rights—and celebrate the overturning of Roe v. Wade like it was the greatest thing to ever happen to America—has not gone over great with voters. The 2022 midterm elections, which were supposed to be a red tsunami for the GOP, were anything but: Democrats picked up a seat in the Senate and Republicans just barely took back the House, with voters in critical states citing abortion as the most important issue of the day. A year later, the right to an abortion was enshrined in Ohio’s state constitution; Kentucky voters reelected pro-choice governor Andy Beshear; and Democrats took control of Virginia’s state legislature, preventing the GOP governor from limiting abortion moving forward, which he’d planned to do. The results were unambiguous: The American people want abortion rights.
Now, with the 2024 election less than a year away, what are Republicans running for higher office to do? According to GOP strategist and Donald Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, the answer is simple: make their campaign slogan something like, “Yeah, we took away your reproductive rights, but, hey, we’re letting you keep contraception, and that’s something!”
The number is 10k per day.
I did the math a few years ago because I couldn’t find anyone else who had published it. This is rough and IANAM (mathmagicman).
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That’s 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot. Because it really isn’t. Out of 155 million votes cast, 10,000 is .006 percent. But here’s the thing. It’s cumulative. And it just doesn’t stop. It is relentless. it’s 300k a month, 3.6 million per year. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it’s a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it’s 30 million. It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly. The most conservative group in the country is dying. While the most liberal group is rising.
We just have to hold on to democracy for a few more years. This will all be behind us. Another 10k today.
This isnt even factoring in the mass extinction event that was the covid pandemic. At first it hit everyone equally but once the vaccine came out and they decided to die on their stupid little hill the numbers skewed disproportionately towards the unvaccinated being the ones impacted in subsequent waves. We have confirmed this now in a few studies and I saw it first hand working in the emergency department.
That absolutely accelerated the trend you’re describing and I think they are just now realizing that the maga train is careening towards its demise and their bold strategy to worship a conman is going to cost them everything.
This year will be the final deciding factor on that. If we can rid ourselves from trump we can prove that there is still hope for this nation. I’m not so naive to think that there won’t be a new conman to take his place and we won’t find ourselves in an endless fight. But if we can’t stop trump and he somehow gets back in power then there’s absolutely no hope for this nation.
I completely agree. And although some polls indicate Trump strength, Biden hasn’t begun yet. The campaign hasn’t started. When it does, I really think it’s a clear Trump defeat.
And that doesn’t even take into account how polling landlines introduces a huge sampling bias. I have my cell phone set on do not disturb unless you’re in my contact list. Most tech savy people don’t answer unknown numbers.
They know it. The powers that be realize Trump is unelectable.
I love the math, but this assumes that all people vote. And we know Republicans have been attacking the voting rights of people for decades now and that too is accelerating.
They have to cheat to win even now.
Um, the correct term is “Mathemagician.” /j
But I agree that if we can hold on long enough and not slide into apathy, we can outlast the Conservatives.
And then we’ll have new bullshit ahead of us.
Yes. We will go back to fighting about policy rather than the existence of democracy.
Oh, so it’s just back to the same bullshit from before. I should have expected that.
What was your expectation before?
Disagreeing about the best path forward and finding compromise is what democracy is, so honestly I can’t imagine what else you expected.
I don’t know. I forgot I lived in the US for a minute I guess. I was just hoping we might have new bullshit. But it’ll be the same bullshit system so it’s gonna produce the same bullshit.
Ya know the only new bullshit we could possibly have is a civil war right? And let me put this kindly unless ya feel like dying or seeing your friends and family dying ya better fucken not want a civil war. And by Odin even my bloodthirsty ass doesnt even want that, sure gutting a fascist could be fun but id rather not have to fight my stupdier kith and kin.
No we won’t. This is the end game. We’re 2 decades, conservatively, from the singularity. Everything could collapse at any time. Either one could happen next year, next decade, or never. One of those will happen within the lifetime of most people alive today
There is an end to the bullshit, and you’ll probably see it
Limes, cut thick or thin?