Ten years on from the referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back toward
  • New ECFR [European Council on Foreign Relations] polling shows British voters see Brexit as a disaster. They are strikingly open to reintegration with the EU. Three quarters want a closer relationship.
  • They see that as key to improvements on the economy, security and migration. Old red lines are falling away, with a majority open to freedom of movement and even a European nuclear deterrent.
  • Brits much prefer EU states and even the EU itself over the US, sentiments that are reciprocated within the union.
  • Leaving the 2016 politics of “leavers” and “remainers” far behind, they are now split into “Optimists” (for confident reintegration), “Realists” (for negotiated closer relations) and “Loners” (for continued distance).
  • Politicians must build a broad consensus on UK-EU relations reflecting the Britain of 2026 rather than that of 2016.

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The Brexit divide may have represented an earthquake in British politics a decade ago, and even a useful category in the 2017 and 2019 general elections, but with each passing year it is becoming less relevant as new experiences and debates reconfigure an electorate that is itself evolving over time. Talk of “leavers” and “remainers” is on the way to resembling that of Roundheads and Cavaliers in the English Civil War, or of supporters and opponents of the 19th-century Corn Laws; the relic of a long-past historical clash rather than a guide to future political behaviour.

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British voters of all political hues have left the old leaver-remainer rift behind. They may well be divided on many other things, as the country’s party-political fragmentation suggests, but on the future of UK-EU relations there is a lot of common ground. Therein lies a chance to leave the old polarisation of the 2016 era behind. The referendum ten years ago sometimes seemed to turn colleagues, families, even places against themselves and each other (the BBC’s flagship documentary on the anniversary is called “Brexit: A Very British Civil War”). Today’s picture is actually more promising: more pro-European, yes, but also a more nuanced patchwork of opinion with a lot of common ground concerning the threats facing the country.

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  • Sepia@mander.xyzOPEnglish
    9·
    3 days ago

    As an addition:

    Ten years on, Brexit’s economic impact is becoming clearer

    … The UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University calculated a rapid 26% reduction in the different types of UK exports by 2023, while a new study from Aston University Business School using five years of more detailed trade data concludes a loss of 53.8% of the type of exports and 31.5% for imports …

    UK trade with Europe had been on an upward trend before 2016. But official figures show that compared to 2019, 2025 UK exports to the EU were 14% down and imports were down 10%.

    And they’ve been getting worse. Last year, 2025, was the worst year for UK goods export volumes to the EU this century, apart from one year in the depths of the financial crisis …

    Think tank Niesr calculates exports were 16.9% lower and imports 16.1% less than what could have been expected based on positive pre-2016 trends. The Centre for European Reform uses a different method, trying to take account of what could have happened if the UK had not been excluded from a more recent surge in intra-EU trade, leading to a goods trade hit of 16% to exports and 14% to imports …

    One area that has performed more strongly since 2016 is services … Services sector exports from the UK to the EU are up 57% over the last decade [but] it is also true that there has been a service boom across the advanced world and some argue Britain might have done even better without Brexit …

    Investment by businesses was significantly lower than what might have continued after Brexit, according to two studies. Former Bank of England independent economist Jonathan Haskel calculates a £29bn or 1.3% reduction in the size of the economy from lower investment than would have been expected since 2016 …

    Business investment flattened in real terms immediately after 2016, and notably underperformed various measures of UK long term-trends and comparisons with other countries …

    The most visible sign of economic shock was the fall in the value of the pound in the minutes and then years after the referendum. This makes imports and travel more expensive, and makes UK assets worth less in the world …