- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.
Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.
“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.
“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.
I do not think there is much evidence that the Ukrainian army is seriously demoralised or unable to make weaponry.
Also source on the bit that Ukraine has suffered far higher losses than Russia? From what I’ve seen UK + US intelligence agencies are saying both sides have heavy losses but Russia has had higher ones overall (that is, since the start in 2022). Ukraine has probably suffered higher losses in the counteroffensive because modern warfare is defender-sided, but since February 2022? Hmm.
the ratio of artillery is essentially a proxy for the casualty rate because this is an artillery battle. I remember an interview with a foreign volunteer in Ukraine who claimed that most Ukrainians never even get to see a Russian soldier, and when they do, it’s the slightest glimpse before they retreat and start blasting them with artillery again.
there’s a counterclaim that astshually it doesn’t matter that Ukraine is firing 10 times less artillery because they’re 10 times more accurate, but this is just a very strange claim; Russian artillery is superior to the West’s and any issues earlier on in the war with lots of misses have been largely solved by now
at the end of the day, who is constantly doing counteroffensives? Ukraine, not Russia. who is constantly needing to do mobilizations? Ukraine, not Russia. who is needing to kidnap people off the streets to funnel them into the military? Ukraine, not Russia. whose country is overflowing with graveyards? Ukraine, not Russia. most of Russia’s September mobilization - the only one they’ve done - hasn’t been devoted to the battlefield yet because they’re being properly trained and nurtured for some future role, which would be impossible if Russians were dying in large numbers as Ukraine claims.
one can be like “oh but Russia is just hiding all this stuff” but I think it’s a lot harder to hide that level of mass death than people think. if Ukraine could, I reckon they would, and they have the entire Western propaganda network at their backs.
truthfully I don’t know exactly how many Russians and Ukrainians have died, but claims that more Russians have died than Ukrainians is genuinely comical, like “Oh, I know this person is a complete dipshit and I know to never listen to them on any take if they can be so completely moronic here,” it’s like the “100 million people died under communism” of Ukraine War talking points at this point. and I would genuinely be extremely surprised if the ratio was less than 1:2 in favor of Russia. Lukashenko thinks it’s 1:8, which is probably too high but like, he also probably has a better idea than me.
Spy satellites have the resolution to read stuff like license plates. If Russia was taking these huge losses we would have irrefutable proof of it, not stories or estimates.
BBC Russia and media zone make an independent project of counting Russian death, and they’re not Russian mouth piece, but ironically, their number is close to Russian MOD. lol
There’s so much evidence for this that even western media now talks about it
You can read about the higher losses Ukraine suffers in Mearsheimer’s latest article that provides sources and citations https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-the-ukraine
Didn’t Russia frag all their logistics a few months ago? I thought they finally took the gloves off and started destroying infrastructure a long time ago?