Could also be don’t worry about deepseek type messaging that addresses concerns without naming names, to tell us that a drastic reduction in infrastructure costs was foretold by the writing of St Moore and was thus always inevitable on the way to immanentizing the AGI, ἀλληλούϊα.

It’s like you founded a combination of an employment office and a cult temple, where the job seekers aren’t expected or required to join the cult, but the rites are still performed in the waiting room in public view.

chef’s kiss

The surface claim seems to be the opposite, he says that because of Moore’s law AI rates will soon be at least 10x cheaper and because of Mercury in retrograde this will cause usage to increase muchly. I read that as meaning we should expect to see chatbots pushed in even more places they shouldn’t be even though their capabilities have already stagnated as per observation one.

2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use. You can see this in the token cost from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, where the price per token dropped about 150x in that time period. Moore’s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is unbelievably stronger.

Saltman has a new blogpost out he calls ‘Three Observations’ that I feel too tired to sneer properly but I’m sure will be featured in pivot-to-ai pretty soon.

Of note that he seems to admit chatbot abilities have plateaued for the current technological paradigm, by way of offering the “observation” that model intelligence is logarithmically dependent on the resources used to train and run it (i = log( r )) so it’s officially diminishing returns from now on.

Second observation is that when a thing gets cheaper it’s used more, i.e. they’ll be pushing even harded to shove it into everything.

Third observation is that

The socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature. A consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future.

which is hilarious.

The rest of the blogpost appears to mostly be fanfiction about the efficiency of their agents that I didn’t read too closely.

Penny Arcade weighs in on deepseek distilling chatgpt (or whatever actually the deal is):

You misunderstand, they escalate to the max to keep themselves (including selves in parallel dimensions or far future simulations) from being blackmailed by future super intelligent beings, not to survive shootouts with border patrol agents.

I am fairly certain Yud had said something very close to that effect in reference to preventing blackmail from the basilisk, even though he tries to no-true-scotchman zizians wrt his functional decision ‘theory’ these days.

Distilling is supposed to be a shortcut to creating a quality training dataset by using the output of an established model as labels, i.e. desired answers.

The end result of the new model ending up with biases inherited from the reference model should hold, but using as a base model the same model you are distilling from would seem to be completely pointless.

The 671B model although ‘open sourced’ is a 400+GB download and is definitely not runnable on household hardware.

Taylor said the group believes in timeless decision theory, a Rationalist belief suggesting that human decisions and their effects are mathematically quantifiable.

Seems like they gave up early if they don’t bring up how it was developed specifically for deals with the (acausal, robotic) devil, and also awfully nice of them to keep Yud’s name out of it.

edit: Also in lieu of explanation they link to the wikipedia page on rationalism as a philosophical movement which of course has fuck all to do with the bay area bayes cargo cult, despite it having a small mention there, with most of the Talk: page being about how it really shouldn’t.

NYT and WaPo are his specific examples. He also wants a connection to “a policy/defense/intelligence/foreign affairs journal/magazine” if possible.

Today on highlighting random rat posts from ACX:

(Current first post on today’s SSC open thread)

On slightly more relevant news the main post is scoot asking if anyone can put him in contact with someone from a major news publication so he can pitch an op-ed by a notable ex-OpenAI researcher that will be ghost-written by him (meaning siskind) on the subject of how they (the ex researcher) opened a forecast market that predicts ASI by the end of Trump’s term, so be on the lookout for that when it materializes I guess.

wrong thread :(

The zizian angle makes this so weird. Like, on top of probably being stopped for driving while trans, they might have instigated the shootout to prove to the basilisk that their parallel universe selves/simulated iterations/eternal souls can’t be acausally blackmailed.

It’s another one of those things that the further you read the worse it gets, isn’t it?

Does anyone know who or what is Ziz in this context? Google says jewish mythological beast.

edit: found this:

The Zizians were a cult that focused on relatively extreme animal welfare, even by EA standards, and used a Timeless/Updateless decision theory, where being aggressive and escalatory was helpful as long as it helped other world branches/acausally traded with other worlds to solve the animal welfare crisis.

They apparently made a new personality called Maia in Pasek, and this resulted in Pasek’s suicide.

They also used violence or the threat of violence a lot to achieve their goal.

This caused many problems for Ziz, and she now is in police custody.

That’s a problem in itself, don’t you think? It’s all very “Feminists hate sex and they want to erase the differences between the genders”. Julia gets a taste of freedom and her right place in the world by putting on makeup and girly clothes and having a lot of sex.

It’s been to long for me to be able to tell if that applies to the general context of Orwell’s views (which apparently I’m not sufficiently aware of) or if it’s also a significant issue with 1984. In principle having the woman character employ cargo cult femininity in a desperate attempt at self expression shouldn’t be unsalvageabl. Being the only woman with a speaking part and also a ditz less so.

Winston being a self-aggrandizing tit who needs things explained to him a lot so the author can soapbox was the sum of my reaction to the character, that he was also supposed to be relatable beyond the basics of his clash with authoritarianship certainly puts a different spin on things.

Huh.

I guess it stands to reason that the guy who made such a fuss about abusing language as a means to nefarious ends would himself have ideas about how it could be abused ethically.

To be clear, I mean to say that in society where it’s life or death to be highly guarded and suspicious of everyone any romantic relationship is necessarily poisoned.

Plus I think there’s a whole thing in the book about things being so restricted that fucking for fun is in itself an act of rebellion and thus another thing your partner has over you if they happen to need to give something up to the authorities.

linguistic purism

That must have been really subtle, all I remember is a concern specifically about how a sufficiently totalitarian regime may try to weaponize language as a further means of subjugation, not that language evolving is bad in principle.

Isn’t Julia a member of some sort of anti-sex league, meaning there’s a lot of bad faith involved in their relationship from the get go?

Also with respect to the attitudes on women and proles, although I don’t think it’s entirely written in the character’s point of view it feels like there’s a lot of unreliable narration going on, or at least you get a lot of stuff from the perspective of a person who grew up in one of the most absurdly totalitarian regimes in literature. Which is to say, it didn’t feel prescriptive most of the time to me.

See also: “proles”, as in the contempt is baked in to the language, which we know the regime is actively trying to hold in a tight leash.