Germany’s foreign intelligence service believed there was a 80-90% chance that coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab, German media say. Two German newspapers say they have uncovered details of an assessment carried out by spy agency BND in 2020 but never published.
The intelligence service had indications that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had been carrying out experiments where viruses are modified to become more transmissible to humans for research, they say.
China repeated its denial saying the cause “should be determined by scientists” - and pointed to a World Health Organization investigation which found the lab-leak theory was “extremely unlikely”.
The lab leak hypothesis has been hotly contested by scientists, including many who say there is no definitive evidence to back it up. But the once controversial theory has been gaining ground among some intelligence agencies - and the BND is the latest to entertain the theory. In January, the US CIA said the coronavirus was “more likely” to have leaked from a lab than to have come from animals.
I really don’t think it’s that hard to believe that some postdoc in Wuhan screwed up and let it loose accidentally.
But it is even easier to believe that the CIA and their toady media are lying again
The complication is the double jump.
In the early days of COVID, there were 2 strains spreading. One of those fizzled out and disappeared after a few weeks. Genetically, they seemed to be independent jumps. A single mistake wouldn’t account for this.
It’s also worth noting that the first known infected all spent time in Wuhan wildlife market. They got fairly good tracking from mobile phones, even if the direct evidence was destroyed by the containment/cleaning effort.
Basically, the surrounding evidence doesn’t fit an accidental leak (2 jumps). It doesn’t really fit an intentional release (very geographically focused). It is consistent with it jumping from a sustained infection pool in the market. (Multiple jumps from the same small area at different times).
They being China’s communis party who in no way, shape or form are willing to participate in any investigation that could potentially place the origin of COVID within China’s borders.
That seems like a reasonable challenge to the lab leak hypothesis, but I have to defer to my wife on it. She has a relevant background in microbiology, medicinal chemistry, and pharmacology and says that something about the structure of the viruses suggests convincingly that at least one of the COVID variants was of man-made origin. She’s also been working in labs for almost twenty years and has seen too many accidents and near-misses. As a lay person, that explanation makes enough sense to me to find the lab leak hypothesis plausible. Also, I’m not going to disagree with a well-published scientist who is also my wife.
Ultimately, it’s of mostly academic interest. Where do we need to tighten down on things to avoid a repeat incident. The best answer would be “Both”.
Also, do you have a link to any papers talking about the man-made origin theory? I’ve not checked in a while, but last time I looked it sent me down a lot of rabbit holes, with nothing ultimately backing it up.
Plausibility is not evidence, however. I think it’s dangerous to try to place blame on somebody for nothing more than a maybe.
At least the lab leak hypothesis isn’t as sinophobic as the “wet market” one.
I think the biggest problem in this whole debacle is the utter opaqueness offered by China when trying to get to the source. Is this China’s fault? Well hold on. While this accident may have happened in China, China’s lax attitude toward safety precautions are an open secret. It’s much like the shady labor practices in, well China for one, that we turn a blind eye to. Why?Because it’s cheaper. So partly it is the unevenly applied and audited safety standards. If people are giving China research money, then those labs should be held to an international standard.
Arguing there is no evidence is extremely disingenuous when Chinese government hid most of it. One should be careful about saying “There is no evidence.” too confidently. At a certain point it sounds like an accomplishment and not a result.
Hey so just a question, are the Chinamen shabby, rushed and incompetent, or are those dirty commies so incredibly, inconceivably competent and meticulous to instantly hide all information that would make them look bad?
Both paradoxically must be true for your sinophobic conspiracy theory to work.
It’s really hard to ‘hide evidence’ in your comparison. No, sorry, that’s stupid. Even Trump can hide evidence, it’s a baby skill. The shabbiness of Chinese industry is by state mandate to quickly scale up China in a short amount of time. Am I racist for saying the Afghani Space Program may not be doing well?