China’s construction of a pair of communications megaconstellations could cloud low Earth orbit with large spent rocket stages for decades or beyond, according to analysts.

Launches for the government’s Guowang and Shanghai-backed but more commercially oriented Qianfan (Thousand Sails) constellation began in the second half 2024, with each planned to consist of over 10,000 satellites, demanding more than a thousand launches in the coming years.

But despite emerging global norms and growing concern about orbital sustainability, China is leaving the upper stages of the rockets used for the launches in orbits that will persist in low Earth orbit (LEO) for over a century.

“For both constellations, the rocket upper stages are being left in high altitude orbits — generally with orbital lifetimes greater than 100 years.”

Victoria Samson, Chief Director, Space Security and Stability at the Secure World Foundation, echoed these concerns.

“Generally speaking, this is not good for anyone who wants to continue to receive benefits from the use of space. Pieces of debris at that altitude will stick around for years, if not decades,” Samson told SpaceNews.

“Leaving those rocket bodies at 700-800 km altitude is incredibly irresponsible. China is just beginning to launch its very large constellations so there is time to fix this before it becomes a grave danger.”

Samson added that China should work on active debris removal (ADR) missions to clean up earlier debris that it created, adding that this applied for both the United States and Russia also.

The Guowang and Qianfan constellations operate at much higher altitudes than Starlink. Guowang has batches of satellites orbiting at around 1,160 and 915 km, while most Qianfan satellites orbit at just above 1,000 km. Most Starlink satellites orbit at around 550 km.

This means both the satellites from the Chinese megaconstellations and the rockets used to get them into orbit will remain there for much longer if there is no deorbiting burn. Falcon 9 rockets currently used for Starlink launches involve a controlled deorbiting of the upper stage, while some Starlink satellites are deorbited after their mission lifetime. How Guowang and Qianfan satellites are handled after their own lifetimes is another matter of concern.