I don’t know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.
ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn’t be in, just your predictions.
Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?
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Winston went back on his word and went with National in 1996, and went back on his word and supported Labour in 2005. So I dunno, it could come down to what parties decide ‘work with’ means
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I agree it does seem more likely it’ll go that way at the moment, but it also seems far less of a done deal than things were looking a couple weeks ago
I don’t think Labour would, or could form a coalition with Green, TPM & NZ1.
Coalitions aren’t the only option
True, a minority govt with Winston on confidence & supply is an option too. Probably not especially viable though.
Unfortunately it would (given it is Winston after all) be the other way round Labour-NZF minority gov with TPM & Greens for confidence and supply