That they do, however I expect this will become as much a problem for Europe as for Russia and very likely more so. The best Ukraine can hope for at this point is that it’s going to become a dysfunctional rump state that’s land locked and has lost most of its productive regions. The west will have a choice of either pouring billions into propping it up, or letting it collapse and then having a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Europe is certainly in no position to absorb these refugees meaning that it’s stuck between a rock and a hard place. With the economic situation deteriorating and Europe already being in recession, it’s hard to keep pouring money into propping up Ukraine, while letting it collapse means having to deal with the refugees.
Furthermore, the fascists in Ukraine will inevitably feel betrayed by the west and they have undoubtedly been working with far right groups in Europe this whole time. We know that huge volumes of weapons that the west sends end up on the black market, and are likely all over Europe at this point. That seems like a recipe for some really bad shit happening going forward.
Meanwhile, I expect that areas that end up being folded into Russia will be fine economically, and there will be no grassroots support for any sort of terrorism there. It’s very likely that we’ll see a similar situation to Chechnya develop where people realized they got played by the west and are now quite resentful for having been used that way.
letting it collapse and then having a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Europe is certainly in no position to absorb these refugees meaning that it’s stuck between a rock and a hard place
Will it affect USA and UK, as the main instigators of the whole shitshow? Ruining continental western Europe seems to be part of the plan. A refugee “crisis” will also help stir reactionary movements. For now they’ve been willing to tolerate Ukrainian refugees over Syrian or African ones (for obvious reasons), but I doubt it will last. There’s already been enraged videos and posts online about “ungrateful, lazy” Ukrainian migrants in Poland and such. Which, again, helps the interests of the instigators.
similar situation to Chechnya develop where people realized they got played by the west and are now quite resentful for having been used that way
Chechnya has seen flares of violence long after the war was officially over. For example here. And after that, well. I don’t know any Chechens personally, so I obviously cannot speak for the mood over there. In western Russia, however, where I live, there’s still a lot of resentment towards Caucasus people. Videos of Kadyrov dancing while being showered with money (not exaggerating) don’t help, and neither do stories in media about Caucasus (or suspected to be such) men starting fights in Moscow subway, or scalping a young man in Elektrostal (again, not exaggerating).
What I’m saying is, don’t underestimate the tensions. There’s plenty of shit for stay-behind groups to exploit, and the chaos they’ll create will only serve the interests of the bastards who started it all. While they, for now, remain insulated from consequences
UK is definitely having serious problems now, and they are still very reliant on the EU economy to stay afloat. So, they’re definitely going to be affected whether they realize it or not. US will likely not see much of an impact in the short term, but Europe crashing economically will drag them down as well in the long run. We’re basically seeing two geopolitical and economic blocs forming around BRICS and G7. Right now things aren’t looking good for the G7 side.
And I get your point that things with Chechnya aren’t perfect, but the situation does seem to be improving steadily. It’s certainly far better today than it was in the 90s. I’m not saying that there won’t be difficulties after the war ends, but I don’t think any of the problems are insurmountable. Ultimately people want peace, and they want to a safe environment to live and raise their kids in.
Unfortunately, I agree that those who are responsible for all this are likely never going to be held accountable.
That they do, however I expect this will become as much a problem for Europe as for Russia and very likely more so. The best Ukraine can hope for at this point is that it’s going to become a dysfunctional rump state that’s land locked and has lost most of its productive regions. The west will have a choice of either pouring billions into propping it up, or letting it collapse and then having a huge refugee crisis on their hands. Europe is certainly in no position to absorb these refugees meaning that it’s stuck between a rock and a hard place. With the economic situation deteriorating and Europe already being in recession, it’s hard to keep pouring money into propping up Ukraine, while letting it collapse means having to deal with the refugees.
Furthermore, the fascists in Ukraine will inevitably feel betrayed by the west and they have undoubtedly been working with far right groups in Europe this whole time. We know that huge volumes of weapons that the west sends end up on the black market, and are likely all over Europe at this point. That seems like a recipe for some really bad shit happening going forward.
Meanwhile, I expect that areas that end up being folded into Russia will be fine economically, and there will be no grassroots support for any sort of terrorism there. It’s very likely that we’ll see a similar situation to Chechnya develop where people realized they got played by the west and are now quite resentful for having been used that way.
Will it affect USA and UK, as the main instigators of the whole shitshow? Ruining continental western Europe seems to be part of the plan. A refugee “crisis” will also help stir reactionary movements. For now they’ve been willing to tolerate Ukrainian refugees over Syrian or African ones (for obvious reasons), but I doubt it will last. There’s already been enraged videos and posts online about “ungrateful, lazy” Ukrainian migrants in Poland and such. Which, again, helps the interests of the instigators.
Chechnya has seen flares of violence long after the war was officially over. For example here. And after that, well. I don’t know any Chechens personally, so I obviously cannot speak for the mood over there. In western Russia, however, where I live, there’s still a lot of resentment towards Caucasus people. Videos of Kadyrov dancing while being showered with money (not exaggerating) don’t help, and neither do stories in media about Caucasus (or suspected to be such) men starting fights in Moscow subway, or scalping a young man in Elektrostal (again, not exaggerating).
What I’m saying is, don’t underestimate the tensions. There’s plenty of shit for stay-behind groups to exploit, and the chaos they’ll create will only serve the interests of the bastards who started it all. While they, for now, remain insulated from consequences
UK is definitely having serious problems now, and they are still very reliant on the EU economy to stay afloat. So, they’re definitely going to be affected whether they realize it or not. US will likely not see much of an impact in the short term, but Europe crashing economically will drag them down as well in the long run. We’re basically seeing two geopolitical and economic blocs forming around BRICS and G7. Right now things aren’t looking good for the G7 side.
And I get your point that things with Chechnya aren’t perfect, but the situation does seem to be improving steadily. It’s certainly far better today than it was in the 90s. I’m not saying that there won’t be difficulties after the war ends, but I don’t think any of the problems are insurmountable. Ultimately people want peace, and they want to a safe environment to live and raise their kids in.
Unfortunately, I agree that those who are responsible for all this are likely never going to be held accountable.