Wagner mercenaries were on Thursday reported to be trying to head back into Russia after threatening retaliation over the suspected killing of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on the orders of Vladimir Putin. “The convoys are likely heading towards the border with Russia,” the centre said. “There’s a lot talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do,” he said.
If Biden funds them Biden funds a direct attack on Russia, due to the increased pressure Russia will take that as an attack from the US and will escalate. We want to deescalate everything we can because we don’t know if putin will use his nukes, and if he does the world ends. Putin will not win a war with the us though, so he may not care about the end of the world.
Every near nuclear war has been averted by Russian officers. The dude on the sub near Cuba and the other dude who realised that the USA hadn’t launched nukes, it was their computer system falsely alerting.
100% success rate so far!
Sure so far, but a direct order from Putin directly after killing the last man who crossed him? If it came to it he would launch everything he’s got because anything not launched gets destroyed by mutually assured destruction, so every single Russian officer would have to refuse to launch. And it only takes one launch to be devastating and trigger a complete reaction from the US as our anti-Russian propaganda is still strong.
I doubt propaganda has any bearing on the choice to react. Because you know at that point it is shooting back?
While it is shooting back, it’s also the end of the world. It’s very possible the people would not fire back and instead just let America die for the sake of the world. The propaganda makes them feel like they are “just shooting back” and they will.
Its the end of the world once 3 of these weapons (if cold war literature is to be believed) go off as it will plunge the world into an ash winter. And as far as I am aware no nation fires less then 6 at a time. It would be the end of the world and no amount of propaganda changes that. No one in their right mind would hold off pulling that trigger against an entity they know just killed everyone they knew.
Oh and the UK would be the one most likely targeted by russia not the US. They have been threatening to for over a year: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/05/03/russia-just-threatened-to-destroy-ireland-and-britain-with-a-nuclear-tsunami/?sh=6eade8dc32b6
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/rattling-nuclear-saber-what-russia-s-nuclear-threats-really-mean-pub-89689
Why would you believe Cold War literature? Propaganda influenced everything. And also the UK would not be the main target if it is America pretty much directly engaging Russia as this suggests. They need those defense dollars to quit coming towards them. And america is its own continent, if Russia was to launch all they could at America and America just sat there and took it it might end life on North America and permanently ruin South America due to fallout, but the rest of the world would survive although it would never be the same.
Well it was not American literature… What is with everyone and the US?
Because the US is historically the most powerful long-lasting nation. The ussr was competitive but they fell, and china is a very very new power. It also doesn’t matter if it was American literature because the Cold War and its associated propaganda was of interest to most countries as their fate was tied to neither doing anything as well.
nukes were never on the table. putin’s goal number one is holding power in russia, and it’s no fun when it’s all shiny glass or when you’re dead. the reason behind invasion? believe it or not, also holding more power within russia. over two decades of putin’s presidency, he carefully molded his electoral base to consist of nationalists, and every time he invaded another country his ratings went up (2008, georgia, 2014, donbas, 2022, ukraine, at least initially) because even if your elections are faked, you need it to be believable and you need to have some real support. that’s even how he got presidency in the first place, by initiating second chechen war
in this situation, what options putin does have?
the only survivable option for putin seems to keep intensity at this level or lower, try to limit western aid, and try to slowly grind through to whatever propaganda objective he wants. remember all these russian threats, that if west provides whatever equipment, they will use nuukes! it seems that everyone called bluff on this one, multiple times. conversely, the more favourable scenario for ukraine is escalation. more info here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4 https://yt.artemislena.eu/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4
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