I mean we should be out on the streets protesting all arms deliveries to Ukraine and demanding that our politicians push for peace negotiations instead. But in terms of this specific one, it’s more of the same pattern we’ve already seen.
First the Americans push one of their European vassals to send a new type of weapons system (in this case the trial balloon was Britain and Storm Shadows) that they haven’t sent so far, then they use this as a justification to say “see, it’s ok if we do it too, it’s not an escalation anymore”, so eventually the US and the rest of NATO start sending theirs. They did it with the tanks, they did it with artillery, and there was no reason to doubt that they would do it with long range missiles too eventually.
The problem is that we have already seen that this does not tend to produce any qualitative change in the balance of forces of this conflict. For sure these kinds of actions prolong it and force Russia to adapt and possibly to respond in kind (as they have done in response to the cluster munitions), but they do not turn the tide for Ukraine. Russia has already shot down similar missiles sent by Britain and no doubt their air defenses will learn to shoot these down as well.
Undoubtedly some amount of damage will be done initially, the cheerleaders in the media will cheer for some pictures of a hit here or there, and Ukraine will not be able to resist using these missiles against civilian targets, but the military situation will remain the same and this will not be any more of a “game changer” than any of the other purported “wonder weapons”. In fact in this case it will be even less impactful because the West does not have all that many of these sorts of weapons to begin with.
So the question becomes, at what point do Westerners finally acknowledge that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is fundamentally irrational, unproductive, and deterimental even for their own self-interest?
just admit it westerners are too dumb for this planet
So the question becomes, at what point do Westerners finally acknowledge that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is fundamentally irrational, unproductive, and deterimental even for their own self-interest?
I disagree with this. Important article on this: Making sense of a self-induced recession in Europe *note I did not downvote
"Knowing well the consequences that bear upon its economy, namely the decoupling from Russian gas and Russian investments, it is instinctive to assume that the EU has beaten a new record for the most irrational decision-making. But arithmetic imposed on processes is misleading and considering the dynamic picture, more power garnered by Europe will resituate it at the helm of the international order. Once in power, Europe dictates to the world its terms of trade. When we consider the social aspects involved in the price formation of commodities – which in this particular context involves the sale of Russian gas for cheap prices, a decapitated Russia will sell its future gas for prices even lower than they were prior to the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict.
This is important to consider because price formation is relative to the structures of power, which emanates from the resultant of social or power relations. Market powers provide the social context in which people come to relate to one another, and thus, how the terms of exchange are legitimized. As a matter of fact, the reason why Russian gas became so cheap after the Soviet Union collapsed is owed to the ideological defeat of the Soviet ideology. The establishment of the petrodollar system in 1973 was a turning point in history which saw the US consolidate the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency, causing a severe drop in the Soviet Union’s income and affecting the bloc’s ability to sustain itself as a autonomous economy.
The history of Europe provides context to how the European working class relates to the capitalists of Europe. To a large extent, the working class of Europe has always been the soldiers of the Empire. By committing crimes against humanity, colonizing peoples, pillaging their resources, and carrying out genocides and ethnocides of immeasurable scale, the European working class reproduces itself by war just as capital does.
The EU has done well at washing the blood off its hands from centuries of looting and pillaging the South as it continues to vaunt its image of moral and cultural superiority and has done so by masterfully subjugating the discourse on human rights to serve its own ends. So much of Europe’s wealth was in fact generated by the relation of looting the South. The European working class makes a living out of killing by increasing its power and partnership with capital. But the presence of a strong Russia has always posed a threat to Western interests, especially as it holds sway over Eurasia.
With the ideological defeat of the Soviet Union and the ongoing expansion of NATO, this pattern continues to take hold in the 21st century. But with the US bearing a leadership role within the alliance, many come to view the EU as being dragged into a war that is not theirs. Whether the US is exerting pressure on the EU or not, it is a certainty that whatever decisions being made are meant to safeguard the rules-based order – an order characterized by the primacy of Western culture and civilization over that of the South, which in turn pays dividends to the European working class itself.
Simply put, it would be far off the mark to assume that the US bears full responsibility for a conflict that the EU has supposedly nothing to do with. Not only the Western alliance is all one and the same, but the imperialism-based order renders war as the only viable option against an autonomous Russia. Rivaling the primacy of the rules-based order is rivaling the terms of exchange as defined by the West, and rivaling the terms of exchange is rivaling US-EU military superiority.
The same applies in the context of waging a trade war with China. Reports have claimed that the US has been pressuring the EU to decouple from China. But neither the EU nor the US has thus far dared to initiate such a move. It is an indisputable certainty that doing so would wreak havoc on Western businesses that rely on Chinese supply chains and manufacturing power. But it is precisely this overreliance on China that the West is aiming to overturn."
I believe the same could be said for US-ians. We are foolish if we think people whose interests align with imperialism would overwhelmingly do anything meaningful to stop it. “Westerners” are overwhelmingly class enemies of the global majority.
This is for the most part solid analysis but the argument falls apart when they mention “a decapitated Russia”. That may have been their intention and their hope at the start but at this point that is not looking even remotely possible to achieve. This has been a massive miscalculation by Europe which will come out as the biggest loser in this whole geopolitical confrontation, because the US will make sure that its losses are transferred onto Europe. Europe being in the subordinate position will see its wealth siphoned off to the US so that the US can slow down its own precipitous decline as the stream of plunder which the Western imperialist system was accustomed to extracting out of the global south is slowly but surely drying up. BRICS+ and China’s Belt and Road Initiative are visibly shattering the West’s neo-colonial global dominance and more and more countries will start seeing which way the wind is blowing.
bravo
the problem becomes in the case of long range missiles US and UK made missiles being used on the civilian centers of a nuclear power
I find it interesting that every time NATO wants to send another wonder weapon to Ukraine, they announce it months in advance. Hell, it seems like Ukraine’s military itself doesn’t do much without it being public knowledge weeks to months in advance. Seems like a terrible way to conduct a war. Does it just simply not matter because Russia has drone-powered eyes on the entire battlefield such that any attempt at surprise is wasted anyway? Is NATO just smart enough to self-sabotage a bit and warn Russia about what it’s doing to try to minimize the risk of things boiler over into a nuclear exchange? Is it because nobody actually wants to risk doing anything that could bring an end to a highly profitable war?
That war is a business for MIC. A showcase. And as every showcase, it needs marketing including commercials.
Ukraine will now be able to blow up Donetsk grocery shops from even further away!
Why, they might even be able to blow up grocery stores in other places!
Doubt this missiles will lead any significant damage, let alone even a scratch to the SMO. Russia’s Air Defences have reached impeccable qualities and the electronic warfare deployed by russia can scramble these missiles if they ever try hitting military targets, likely these missiles will be used to hit crimea, maybe some bridges, maybe a dam, or some obscure airfield far north of russia. These missiles will be gone just like the rest of the wunderwaffes
Pretty sure they said waaay back when these missiles were first proposed (around spring) that it would “allow AFU to strike Crimea”. As in, not just the shores. We’re talking terror attacks on all cities in the peninsula - Yalta, Simferopol, Kerch. Plus the already suffering areas - Belgorod, Donetsk. Might even try to strike Moscow or smaller cities - Niznhy Novgorod for example, has plenty of military related industries. And while the anti-missile and anti-air defenses are good, their coverage is not - as evidenced by missiles and shells slipping through and falling in Belgorod, Donetsk, Tver, etc
the shells used by the AFU cannot be destroyed using conventional means, western missiles are expensive, and few in quantity, and Anti-Missile Warfare is a lot more advanced than you think. Storm shadow missiles have been routinely destroyed despite their ‘stealth’ and ‘speed’. ATACMS on the other hand are not, so these missiles will be intercepted, even then russia would destroy the depots which house these missiles.
It’s also a myth that the reason these missiles were not delivered then was due to any perceived moral red lines(seriously a western politician having things like foward-thinking? Pah). No these missiles have to procured, developed, shipped and sent, all of this takes months especially in america, where military infrastructure is severely lacking. Another thing is these companies who make these missiles are very shy about their products, probably because they seriously underperform their own tasks.
I mean if drones can hit as far as Moscow without detection
Drones are harder to detect than missiles.
What cfgaussian said, Ukraine can use very efficient means to hide their drones (such as using carboard or flying very low to avoid detection) missiles do not have this luxury, they have a very short time frame, hit hard and fast. And Anti-Missile weaponry has been more developed than Anti-Drone weapons, military targets in russia have also been very fortified, and while these missiles can reach as far as moscow. There’s prominent speculation just how realistic this is.
We should… but at the same time… all the fancy guidance shit will be stripped out and who knows if the Ukranians will have the support infrastructure to keep the things functional before use.
“Can’t keep those types of things fueled without maintenance for too long or the gosh darned oxidizing agent starts eating through all the gosh darned rocket parts!”
Half surprised they didn’t go for “Army Tactical Operational Missile Improved Counteroffensive Systems” (ATOMICS) to sound threatening
