cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/285341
Military Junta in Niger has released a statement claiming that ECOWAS has completed its preparations for an Invasion of Niger with at least 2 Members of the Organization
ECOWAS’ deadline for the new Nigerien govt to peacefully step down lest they use military action has passed. "A Senior Military Commander with the ECOWAS-Standby Force has told the Wall Street Journal that it’s Forces need more time to prepare before any kind of Military Intervention in Niger, with the “Success” of the Operation being dependent on these preparations"
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs updates travel advisory to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (the three nations declared to defend the new Nigerien govt against military intervention) the highest level of caution
Let’s put the was in ECOWAS
[giggles]
I also wonder if the West hopes to drag Russia into a two front war, given that some West African countries like Burkina Faso have expressed their support for Russia.
Russia is sending Wagner to Niger. Which prevents them from trying anything funny again, so it works for Russia anyway.
Yeah they’re there it seems. But it will be interesting to see how Russia will respond if an actual war breaks out where the West will be involved. Will they help the countries that supported them, or will they let them be? Because if Russia will not respond, it might break support among African nations who are trying to break with the Western bloc. And if Russia does respond, they will have to focus on two different battlefields.
The US will also have to focus on two battlefields at the same time and I see Russia being in a better position.
Why would Russia be in a better position? Local support?
Source?
Prigozhin offering to help Niger- https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/29/africa/prigozhin-niger-coup-wagner-intl/index.html
Niger asking for Wagner’s help - https://apnews.com/article/wagner-russia-coup-niger-military-force-e0e1108b58a9e955af465a3efe6605c0
I can’t find a credible article claiming that they’re deploying yet, but here’s a tweet from the original hexbear thread - https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1687932657123143680
I think it’s pretty likely to be true given the above, but we’ll have to wait a little longer to see
Thanks!
At least in Nigeria there is no support for an invasion, the parlament voted against an intervention and the opposition (it’s close to election I think) is also strongly opposed to it. Algerian president alsonput out a statement urging against intervention.
Source(though in german) (https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/456299.krisenregion-sahel-rückhalt-für-putschisten-wächst.html)
Would this amount to anything? AFAIK Nigeria is a Western-Style “democracy”, wherein the proles are given an illusion of choice and the responsibility to foot the bill for the bourgeoisie. The ruling class meanwhile just does whatever
Yeah, but those are the representatives of the ruling class voting against it.
deleted by creator
I’m sure the west is not in any way responsible for this
But but, coups are good I thought? Isn’t it just a people expressing their democratic will etc?
Well judging by history, coups are only good if the CIA plotted them apparently.
It does appear that Nigeria is not onboard, and that’s one of the biggest militaries in ECOWAS, so that’s a hopeful development https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/08/05/as-ecowas-prepares-for-a-western-backed-military-invasion-nigeriens-rally-behind-military-authorities/
I wonder how much time this will be featured in mainstream media.
Whatever the reasons the ECOWAS Commander says they need more time, this is great because each day that passes the West starves and grows weaker and less able to wage war.
Their usual favorite imperial siphons are being severed, so they are increasingly turning to unsavory contingencies such as Europe proper, Mexico, Africa. Yet the imperial skeleton has osteoporosis, they may be able to make some truly desperate moves in Europe and next door in Mexico but I think they will find that Africa is not as helpless and readily exploitable as they arrogantly think, especially as Russia and China continue to be involved in the continent.
I wonder if anti-imperialist regional powers like South Africa and Iran will be involved in any way. Alone they would struggle to thwart Western imperial ambitions but with their weight all together I think they could turn this from an inevitable Western defeat into a swift and clean one.
