- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
Summary
Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia could launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if NATO appears weak or divided, especially if the U.S. does not intervene.
The report outlines a timeline where Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, escalate to a regional Baltic conflict in two years, and potentially engage NATO-wide by 2029.
The assessment comes as Trump pressures NATO members to increase defense spending and has suggested the U.S. might not defend allies who fail to meet financial commitments.
With what? They can’t even handle war in Ukraine and they run out of plenty of hardware.
I do not have an English translation but in this interview a lieutenant general of the German Bundeswehr says that they are observing that not all new supplies are being pushed to the Ukrainian front lines and instead new stockpiles are being created.
My personal expectation is that Putin will attempt one more push in Ukraine once mud season is over, take what he can get and then agree to another peace deal (Minsk 3 anyone?). He will then take some time to restructure and reinforce the military before again “coming to the aid of suppressed Russian minorities”, this time in places like Georgia, Moldova or Armenia. Ukraine is off the table because they will use the time to reinforce as well.
Could be, who knows. Though the countries listed are not part of NATO and are weak. And at least in Moldova it’s not easy as Russia doesn’t border it and for Armenia they have to go through Georgia first.
Perfect to get the collective confidence back on its feed after getting a literal bloody nose in Ukraine.
Two for the price of one. That’s a bargain!
With the help of the US
I’d laugh at you if this was 2024. Today? I’m uncomfortable with such statements.
The new Axis powers of Russia, China, North Korea and U.S.A against the European powers. 10 years ago that would seem ridiculous, now, not too far fetched.
Considering sherlock holme’s famous statement “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”
So then, yes; though one can hope.
USA’s secretary of defense is already saying that Ukraine should let go of the occupied territories, will not be allowed in NATO and will not get any security guarantees. Basically saying to let Russia win and opening the door for more invasions by Russia.
Well most of the rare earth materials Trump wants are in Russian occupied territory, or on the border of it.
yeah, that’s the only positive aspect, there may actually be a reason for conservatives to push for defending ukraine and regaining their land.
Yeah, but won’t Trump be busy with the Great War on Greenland, Panama and Canada?
I wouldn’t put it past Trump to make a deal with Putin so that he gets Greenland and can mine the fuck out of it’s untapped mineral resources.
I’m not sure how Greenland is Putin’s to give. Denmark has a military and Greenlanders wouldn’t just sit back and let themselves be annexed.
Oh sorry, I meant more like allying with Putin’s side if war breaks out for the potential of getting Greenland.
Unfortunately, if they could foresee the consequences of their own actions, the war in Ukraine wouldn’t even have started
Hey, it’s just a quick special military operation to Kyiv, in and out in three days! Surely nothing can go wrong.
IIRC there was talk after it went south that the yes-men around Putin had made him believe that not only would Ukraine not fight back, but the people would join the Russian troops in celebration for being “liberated” and help them, and that’s why they didn’t even think that failure was a possibility.
TBH it’s still early for evaluating consequences - it might still prove beneficial for Russia, especially with orange in chief.
Anything less than total victory will lead to economic collapse for Russia and at this point it’s pretty much impossible even with Trump in office. They are cooked in any case.
They wasted hundreds of thousands in the meat grinder… The final outcome would have to be absolutely massive in favour of Russia for it to still be beneficial. Unlikely.
Depends on the perspective. To Putin it’s not a problem, for him people are expandable and cheap. You just write some laws and they grow again in his view. As the land grab is forever. Your and mine views are non-dictatorish and as such don’t apply to Russian imperialism.
If they capture Ukraine, they will have a fresh pool of conscripts, not to mention Ukraine’s impressive military technology.
those people aren’t going to join the russian army willingly.
The country will resemble european afghanistan. it will be one of the bloodiest insurgencies in history.
the only reason a Ukrainian would willingly join the russian army is because he’s either a mentally handicapped traitor. or he’s furious at how the West betrayed and used his country like a pawn.
And a never ending insurgency?
Good point. Ukrainians doesn’t have that much of weapons and are heavily reliant on west. Except for drones, but at least some major parts are bought from other countries. But yes, it would increase Russian military to some extent, though I doubt Ukrainians would be good Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian conscripts will have a line of known-loyal barrier troops behind them with orders to shoot them if they fail to obey. Old Russian Army tactic.
Yes, sure, but that still doesn’t make them good soldiers.
russians aren’t known for utilizing good soldiers anyway. they are known for utilizing meat shields, though